Today's published research points to one dominant story: a geopolitical supply shock is pushing the global economy into a stagflation-shaped regime, with oil as the transmission belt into nearly every other asset.
The consensus across recent research is that Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption keep Brent and WTI bid, with some forecasts pointing to a Q3 peak near $120–$140 and others flagging $80–90 as a floor even if tensions ease. Most analysts now expect at least one — likely two — near-term ECB rate hikes, dragging Eurozone yields higher. A majority view also keeps the dollar firm on rate differentials, though a longer-horizon camp argues structurally lower.
Disagreements are sharpest on equities and gold. One group of researchers stays constructive on US tech over the next 12 months; another warns of bubble conditions and a summer correction. On gold, near-term bearish calls collide with cyclical bullish ones. A contrarian thread even sees long-dated oil collapsing toward $75 if a US–Iran deal reopens Hormuz.