Stance over time
Each dot is one speech or statement by the Fed, scored from dovish to hawkish; the line is the trailing 30-day average. Hover a dot for the date and speaker.
Latest decision
The Committee raised the target range by 25bp to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, saying the action will support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent and that it will deliver price stability. No explicit forward rate path is given.
- Rate
- Federal funds target (upper bound)
- Vote
- 12-0
Decision history
| Date | Action | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | 4.00% | 12-0 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Hold | 3.75% | 9-3 |
Fed forecasts: real GDP growth
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.3% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.4% | ▲ +0.1 |
Fed forecasts: inflation
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Statescore | 3.4% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.5% | unchanged |
| United States | 3.7% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.3% | unchanged |
Revision is the change from the bank’s previous edition, in percentage points.
Recent speeches and statements
- 13 Oct 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.0Hike +25bp
The Board approved a 25bp hike in the primary credit rate to 4 percent and a rise in interest on reserve balances from 3.65 to 3.9 percent, effective September 17, 2026, supporting the FOMC's decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
discount rateinterest rate hikeinflationlabour marketai buildoutMinutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026 → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5
If economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent. The hikes need not come at consecutive meetings but should be in place within an acceptable period of time.
inflationmonetary policycentral bank communicationlabour marketenergyThe signaling value of the summary of economic projections → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechMichelle W. Bowman
Later this year the Board will consider raising and indexing fixed-dollar asset thresholds (updated every five years), broader reforms to portfolios defined by asset size, and updates to large bank tailoring. Fed supervision is being realigned into five regions.
bank regulationsupervisioncommunity banksasset thresholdsfinancial stabilityModernizing the regulatory and supervisory landscape → - 8 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Christopher J. Waller
If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal; the hikes need not come at consecutive meetings.
inflationlabour marketforward guidancecommunicationenergyWaller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections → - 7 Oct 2026 · Speech
The Fed will keep reviewing and modernizing its regulations when data show a rule is not working as intended; the eSLR recalibration is judged to have improved Treasury market functioning and resilience.
enhanced supplementary leverage ratiotreasury marketbank capital regulationmarket liquidityfinancial stabilityModernizing financial regulation - initial observations from eSLR → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechMichelle W. Bowman
Later this year the Board will consider indexing fixed-dollar asset thresholds and broader tailoring reforms; Fed supervision is being restructured into five regions.
bank supervisioncommunity banksfinancial regulationBowman, Modernizing the Regulatory and Supervisory Landscape → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.2Michael S. Barr
In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion. Risks to the inflation target have increased while labor market risks have receded, so policy needs recalibrating.
inflationartificial intelligencelabour marketenergymonetary policyEconomic conditions and monetary policy → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechChristopher J. Waller
Meeting this moment requires a proactive approach that balances innovation with the safety, integrity, and stability underpinning trust in payments; agentic commerce is early but could significantly reshape commerce and payments if adoption scales.
paymentsartificial intelligenceagentic commercecross-border paymentscybersecurityPayments in the age of AI agents → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0
If the economy evolves broadly in line with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. There is no need for urgency.
inflationmonetary policyenergyai investmentlabour marketUnwavering dedication → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.8Philip N. Jefferson
Any future policy adjustments should be determined by carefully examining data trends, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks; he will keep assessing whether inflation is returning to target with sufficient speed.
inflationenergylabour marketai investmentmonetary policyThe US economy and monetary policy → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechMichelle W. Bowman
Regulators will continue to review and recalibrate rules when evidence shows unintended consequences, building on the eSLR recalibration that improved Treasury market functioning.
bank capitalleverage ratiotreasury marketregulationBowman, Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.8Philip N. Jefferson
Any future policy adjustments should be determined by carefully examining trends in the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. He will keep assessing whether inflation will return to target with sufficient speed, and committee judgment may take more time.
inflationenergyai investmentlabour marketinflation expectationsJefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Lisa D. Cook
Inflation has been too high for too long, exceeding the 2 percent target for more than five years. Cook voted with the FOMC to raise rates 25 basis points in September and is committed to returning inflation to target while preserving labor market strength.
inflationlabour marketrural economyhousing costssmall businessThe dual mandate in rural America → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Lisa D. Cook
Inflation has been too high for too long, exceeding the 2 percent target for more than five years. Cook voted with the FOMC to raise rates 25bp in September and is committed to returning inflation to target while preserving labor market strength.
inflationlabour marketrural economyhousingsmall businessCook, The Dual Mandate in Rural America → - 29 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Lisa D. Cook
Looking ahead, I will consider what policy rate may be needed to continue to guide inflation down to our target; AI buildout and higher oil prices are expected to keep pressure on inflation in coming months.
artificial intelligenceinflationproductivitylabour marketmonetary policyAn update on AI and the economy → - 29 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.3Michael S. Barr
In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.
inflationlabour marketaienergyBarr, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy → - 28 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Lisa D. Cook
Looking ahead, I will consider what policy rate may be needed to continue to guide inflation down to our target. AI buildout, higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions are expected to keep pressure on inflation in coming months.
artificial intelligenceinflationlabour marketproductivitymonetary policyCook, An Update on AI and the Economy → - 28 Sep 2026 · Speech
The Fed will keep modernizing the discount window, with more automation, standardized processes and closer Reserve Bank-FHLB interoperability. Governor says the work is not done and the Fed cannot be complacent.
discount windowtreasury marketfinancial stabilitybank liquiditymoney marketsDiscount window modernization and treasury market functioning → - 23 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Michael S. Barr
Having supported last week's rate increase, in my base case further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.
inflationhousingaffordabilitymonetary policyBarr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter → - 16 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +1.5Hike +25bp
The Committee raised the target range by 25bp to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, saying the action will support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent and that it will deliver price stability. No explicit forward rate path is given.
inflationpolicy ratelabour marketbalance sheetgeopoliticsFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement → - 16 Sep 2026 · ProjectionsHawkish +1.0
The median FOMC participant projects the federal funds rate at 4.1% at end-2026 and 2027, up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June, before easing to 3.9% in 2028.
inflationgrowthunemploymentinterest ratesFederal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting → - 16 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.4Christopher J. Waller
If August inflation data show continued progress toward 2 percent, he would support holding the policy rate at its current level; if inflation comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
inflationmonetary policylabour marketai investmenttariffsThe economic outlook and some comments on my policy communication → - 16 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.5Hike +25bp
Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end, though each meeting is approached with an open mind.
inflationrate hikeenergy pricesai investmentlabour marketMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026 → - 3 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.5Christopher J. Waller
If continued progress toward 2% inflation, Waller would support holding the federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting; if August inflation comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike.
inflationinterest rateslabour marketaicommunicationWaller, The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication →
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How this page is made
We collect what central banks and multilateral institutions publish: rate decisions, meeting minutes, officials’ speeches and staff projections. AI reads each document and records who is speaking, whether they vote on policy, the forward guidance, any decision taken and any forecasts.
Stance is scored from strongly dovish (−2) to strongly hawkish (+2): above +0.2 reads as hawkish, below −0.2 as dovish, in between as neutral. It is an interpretation of the wording, not an official classification. Figures are as stated in the source document; always check the original, linked from every entry.