Stance over time
Each dot is one speech or statement by the ECB, scored from dovish to hawkish; the line is the trailing 30-day average. Hover a dot for the date and speaker.
Latest decision
The ECB follows a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a rate path. It stands ready to adjust all instruments to ensure inflation stabilises sustainably at 2% in the medium term.
- Rate
- ECB key interest rates (deposit facility rate)
- Vote
- unanimous
Decision history
| Date | Action | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | - | unanimous |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Hold | 2.25% | - |
ECB forecasts: real GDP growth
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area | 0.9% | unchanged | 1.4% | ▼ -0.1 |
| France | 0.5% | - | - | - |
| Germany | 1.0% | - | - | - |
ECB forecasts: inflation
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro areacore | - | - | 2.6% | unchanged |
| Euro area | 3.0% | unchanged | 2.5% | unchanged |
Revision is the change from the bank’s previous edition, in percentage points.
Recent speeches and statements
- 17 Oct 2026 · StatementHawkish +0.8Christine Lagarde
The energy shock is too large to look through but a measured response remains appropriate to keep inflation in check; future policy will follow a comprehensive assessment of incoming data based on the reaction function.
inflationenergypolicy ratefinancial stabilitydigital euroChristine Lagarde: IMFC Statement → - 13 Oct 2026 · Speech
Assuming legislation is concluded by end-2026, the ECB aims to be ready for a potential first digital euro issuance in 2029; the pilot starts in H2 2027 for 12 months, Pontes reaches full implementation by mid-2028 and the Appia blueprint is due in 2028.
digital eurotokenisationpaymentsfinancial stabilitycentral bank moneyMoney in the digital age - digital euro, tokenisation and the role of central banks → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechPhilip R. Lane
The AI-driven global rise in long-term interest rates constitutes a material tightening of financial conditions for the euro area, a relevant factor for the ECB in determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
artificial intelligenceproductivityfinancial conditionsfinancial stabilityPhilip R. Lane: The AI opportunity for Europe → - 8 Oct 2026 · Speech
AI is putting the ESRB's system-wide view to the test; the speaker notes that nearly nine in ten significant euro area banks use generative AI and seven in ten EU securities firms expect to increase AI investment.
artificial intelligencefinancial stabilitysystemic riskbankingWhere AI risks meet → - 7 Oct 2026 · Speech
The Eurosystem expects a long period of gradual DLT adoption rather than an overnight revolution. Pontes links DLT platforms to TARGET Services for central bank money settlement, and a blueprint for Appia is planned for 2028. The digital euro is in its preparatory phase.
tokenisationcentral bank moneydigital eurocross-border paymentsstablecoinsTechnology, money and the financial infrastructure of the future → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.5Philip R. Lane
Rate hikes have been driven by the inflation implications of the energy shock; a globally driven rise in long-term yields slows the economy and lowers inflation and will be in the mix in deciding where the policy rate needs to go.
inflationenergylong-term yieldsfiscal policyaiPhilip R. Lane: Interview with Ansa → - 6 Oct 2026 · Speech
Lower capital requirements would very unlikely materially increase lending. Simplification of EU bank rules is welcome but will not on its own boost competitiveness. The most powerful tool is financial integration: complete banking union (incl. EDIS) and capital markets union.
financial stabilitybank capital requirementsregulatory simplificationbanking unioncapital markets unionResilience, integration and competitiveness - building the future of European banking → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechPiero Cipollone
If the digital euro legislation is concluded by end-2026, the ECB aims to be ready for a potential first issuance in 2029, with a pilot starting in the second half of 2027.
digital eurotokenisationpaymentsfinancial stabilityPiero Cipollone: Money in the digital age: digital euro, tokenisation and the role of central banks → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechFrank Elderson
A refocusing exercise launched in mid-October will review the stock of supervisory measures; low-severity F1 findings will become supervisory observations, while material weaknesses face escalation.
banking supervisionsimplificationfinancial stabilityFrank Elderson: Effective supervision through timely remediation → - 6 Oct 2026 · Speech
Supervisors should prioritise material risks via a risk tolerance framework, simplify processes, and escalate to enforcement (capital, qualitative measures, penalty payments) when banks fail to fix root causes in time. Full Basel III implementation remains critical.
banking supervisionfinancial stabilitynon-bank financial intermediationcyber riskregulatory simplificationSupervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectiveness → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.8Joachim Nagel
High uncertainty around the inflation outlook calls for flexibility, not inaction. The Governing Council will keep taking data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decisions, and monetary policy must act if the energy shock becomes persistent and self-sustaining.
inflationenergygeopoliticsgoldreserve managementShifting ground – how geopolitics is reshaping growth, monetary policy and the role of gold as a reserve asset → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.3Philip R. Lane
The ECB remains on a 'middle path' where a measured response keeps inflation in check. It is not on a pre-committed rate path and will decide meeting by meeting on the data, after raising the policy rate from 2.00 to 2.50 per cent in June and September.
inflationenergymonetary policyfiscal policyaiDiagnostic challenges for ECB monetary policy → - 2 Oct 2026 · SpeechBoris Vujčić
Reducing bank capital requirements would be very unlikely to materially increase lending; simplification must not weaken resilience, and financial integration via a completed banking union is the key to competitiveness.
bank regulationfinancial stabilitybanking unioncapital requirementsBoris Vujčić: Resilience, integration and competitiveness: building the future of European banking → - 2 Oct 2026 · SpeechOlli Rehn
A well-designed European safe asset deserves further examination and could support the Savings and Investments Union, but only if its design protects financial stability and public finances. The ESRB stands ready to provide independent financial-stability analysis without prejudging political choices.
financial stabilityeuropean safe assetsavings and investments unionai riskspublic debtReinforcing Europe’s financial resilience – and growth potential → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechChristine Lagarde
AI-related risks in trading, cyber resilience and geopolitics call for careful macroprudential monitoring; cyber defences of critical financial systems should be reviewed and Europe should develop its own AI capabilities.
aifinancial stabilitycyber riskgeopoliticsChristine Lagarde: Where AI risks meet → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechIsabel Schnabel
The ECB aims to preserve the anchor role of central bank money in a digitalised world, with planned Pontes enhancements including 24/7 availability and decentralised programmability.
tokenisationcbdcpaymentsmarket infrastructureIsabel Schnabel: Central banks on-chain → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.5Christine Lagarde
The ECB's task is to prevent the energy supply shock from feeding durably into inflation, which may lead it to raise rates, while looking closely at the strength of economic activity before acting.
inflationenergyfiscal policyfranceclimateChristine Lagarde: Interview with La Croix → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0
The ECB remains on a 'middle path': the energy shock is too large to look through, so a measured response is appropriate to keep inflation in check. It reacts only if higher energy prices risk becoming embedded in inflation.
inflationartificial intelligenceenergymonetary policyproductivityHearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0Isabel Schnabel
Incoming data on pass-through to underlying inflation, inflation expectations and the economy's response to hikes already delivered will inform calibration of the stance so current shocks do not become embedded in persistent inflation.
inflationenergyunderlying inflationinflation expectationsmonetary transmissionIsabel Schnabel: Monetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks → - 30 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.2Isabel Schnabel
The coming months will show whether pipeline price pressures feed into underlying inflation and expectations, and how the economy responds to the hikes already delivered. This will inform calibration of the stance so shocks do not become embedded in persistent inflation.
inflationenergymonetary policyinflation expectationsneutral rateMonetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks → - 28 Sep 2026 · Speech
The ACPR will supervise high-risk AI systems from December 2027 and advocates stronger international safeguards for frontier AI, including gradual controlled roll-out of the most powerful models, access limited to trusted partners and independent assessment capabilities.
artificial intelligencecybersecurityfinancial stabilityregulationconsumer protectionArtificial intelligence - the new frontiers of risk → - 28 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.6Christine Lagarde
The ECB remains on a 'middle path': the energy shock is too large to look through, so a measured response is appropriate to keep inflation in check. It will not react to energy prices per se but to risks of them becoming embedded in inflation.
inflationenergyartificial intelligenceproductivitymonetary policyChristine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament → - 22 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.5Philip R. Lane
Because of a second wave of energy price increases, inflation is likely to be higher for longer before falling back towards target from mid-2027 onwards.
energyinflationgrowthfiscal policyaiPhilip R. Lane: Interview with Le Temps → - 22 Sep 2026 · SpeechClaudia Buch
Supervisors are technology-neutral but not risk-neutral. They will keep adapting supervision with system-wide views, expect banks to hold multi-year digital budgets and strong governance, and remediate open findings in a timely manner. Weakening prudential standards would undermine banks' resilience.
digital innovationartificial intelligencetokenised depositsfinancial stabilitybank supervisionDigital innovation - hindrance or booster for banks’ business models? →
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How this page is made
We collect what central banks and multilateral institutions publish: rate decisions, meeting minutes, officials’ speeches and staff projections. AI reads each document and records who is speaking, whether they vote on policy, the forward guidance, any decision taken and any forecasts.
Stance is scored from strongly dovish (−2) to strongly hawkish (+2): above +0.2 reads as hawkish, below −0.2 as dovish, in between as neutral. It is an interpretation of the wording, not an official classification. Figures are as stated in the source document; always check the original, linked from every entry.