Assets

• Cross-assetToday's dominant signal across published research: a geopolitically-driven inflation shock radiating from the Middle East. The reinstated Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 20% cargo toll on non-Iranian vessels are lifting…
• GoldGold's outlook is split by time horizon, according to this week's published research — bearish over the next few weeks, bullish over the next few years.
• SilverSilver looks set to resume its climb in the second half of the year, according to research published this week.
• CopperCopper: published research is broadly bullish, with the case resting on structural demand that could persist for years.
• OilPublished research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with most analysts expecting Brent and WTI to push higher after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and imposed a 20% transit toll on…
• Natural gasEuropean gas prices now hinge almost entirely on whether the US-Iran agreement holds — with the structural setup still leaving upside risk on the table.
• BitcoinBitcoin could face a brutal reset if history repeats, according to recent published research.
• US equitiesUS stocks: the published research is split down the middle, and it's not a subtle disagreement.
• European equitiesEuropean equities are drawing a strongly bullish tilt in this week's published research, with one dissenting voice pushing back that prices have run too far ahead of profits.
• US bondsPublished research this week is lining up behind one call: US Treasury yields are biased higher across the curve, and high-yield credit spreads are likely to widen.
• EU bondsEuropean bond markets are getting a split read from published research: yields broadly under pressure, but pockets of opportunity in core duration and credit.
• EUR/USDPublished research this week is leaning bearish on EUR/USD, pointing to two reinforcing pressures on the euro.

Macro

• Macro themesToday's macro tape is dominated by one story: a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping and a proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo fee sent Brent crude nearly 10% higher in a single session, toward $83–$86/bbl. The…