Published research this week is lining up behind one call: US Treasury yields are biased higher across the curve, and high-yield credit spreads are likely to widen.
The near-term trigger, flagged across multiple recent research notes, is an oil price surge tied to renewed US military activity around the Strait of Hormuz — reigniting inflation fears and pushing markets to reprice the odds of another Fed hike. Fed Governor Waller's hawkish signal that tightening is on the table if core CPI runs hot has, according to the published consensus, added conviction at the front end.
Cyclically, one camp of analysts points to structural pressure on long-end yields from AI-driven capex, widening deficits, and softer foreign demand for Treasuries. A related view argues financial conditions are too loose and tightening is overdue. Some recent research also frames real yields as attractive here, since long-end breakevens have fallen more than oil moves would justify.
A contrarian thread pushes back: if core CPI keeps cooling, the disinflation path could pull 10Y yields lower into year-end. It's a genuine dissent, but one that hinges on the inflation data breaking the other way.