Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on crude, with most analysts expecting Brent and WTI to push higher after the US reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and imposed a 20% transit toll on vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
The core argument across the research consensus: tanker traffic has slowed sharply, and the market has swung from worrying about oversupply to pricing in supply disruption. One camp argues Brent has a clear path to $100 per barrel as long as the blockade and toll stay in place, with attacks on UAE tankers and Houthi missile launches compounding the risk. Another view targets $90, while others see prices migrating from the $70s into the $80s–$90s. Refined products — gasoline, diesel, jet fuel — are flagged as staying expensive even if crude softens, due to refining bottlenecks. A technical note of caution: WTI looks overbought after a 10%-plus weekly surge, so near-term pullbacks are possible.
A contrarian thread suggests that if US–Iran diplomacy holds and flows normalise, Brent could average closer to $70 into 2027. Horizon is the key variable.