Today's dominant signal across published research: a geopolitically-driven inflation shock radiating from the Middle East. The reinstated Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 20% cargo toll on non-Iranian vessels are lifting crude and natural gas, pushing global bond yields higher on renewed Fed, RBA and RBNZ hike pricing, and firming the dollar — a classic stagflationary risk-off setup.
The consensus across a wide swath of recent research is that Brent and WTI go higher, with one pointed call targeting $100/bbl. Researchers broadly argue US 10-year yields drift up on inflation and hawkish Fed repricing, dragging UK, German, Australian and Japanese yields along. The published view on the dollar leans near-term stronger on rate differentials and safe-haven flows.
Disagreements are real. One camp reads gold as tactically weak as Fed tightening bets crowd out haven demand; another holds it structurally bullish on geopolitics and reserve buying. A contrarian thread argues oil collapses toward $70 through 2027 if a US–Iran deal holds. And on crowded AI mega-caps, several recent notes flag stretched valuations and fragile positioning as the near-term risk.