European gas prices now hinge almost entirely on whether the US-Iran agreement holds — with the structural setup still leaving upside risk on the table.
One strand of published research argues TTF has room to run higher, pointing to the earlier US blockade of Hormuz, uncertainty around LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, and European storage sitting well below its five-year average. Cargo diversions to Asia during injection season make that tightness worse.
A contrasting view in recent research notes that the US-Iran memorandum has already pulled prices sharply lower, with TTF now hovering just above €40/MWh. That camp sees further downside if Hormuz flows keep normalising and the deal sticks.
A separate published analysis extends the bullish-resolution case into macro terms, estimating a roughly 30% drop in the direct energy hit to euro-area inflation in 2026 — but only if market sentiment stays constructive.
The takeaway from researchers: these aren't opposing forecasts so much as two geopolitical paths for the same market.