Bitcoin could face a brutal reset if history repeats, according to recent published research.
One recently-circulated analysis argues Bitcoin may retrace roughly 70% from its recent peak, sliding toward $37,000 by November. The reasoning leans on the well-known four-year cycle, where prior all-time highs have been followed by year-long drawdowns of similar magnitude.
The call isn't unconditional. Researchers making this case flag a specific off-ramp: if the Clarity Act — a piece of US crypto market-structure legislation — passes before August 7th, that regulatory catalyst could be enough to break the bearish setup. Absent that, the historical pattern is expected to reassert itself.
Worth noting this is a contrarian, cycle-based framing rather than a consensus view. Plenty of other published analysis argues that ETF flows and institutional adoption have structurally changed Bitcoin's rhythm and that prior cycles may no longer be a clean template.