Published research this week is leaning bearish on EUR/USD, pointing to two reinforcing pressures on the euro.
One camp of analysts frames the downside around the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB. Their argument: with the Fed still the more hawkish of the two, the rate differential keeps working against the euro. The pair has already drifted toward its lowest level in roughly a year, near 1.14, in the wake of the US–Iran agreement.
A separate thread of recent research zeroes in on energy. Gas and oil spikes hit the eurozone's terms of trade harder than they hit the US, and this view warns that Brent at $90–100 a barrel alongside European gas at €55–60/MWh could push EUR/USD toward 1.10.
The published views broadly agree the ECB has limited room to keep pace with the Fed on rates, which sits underneath both cases. The two paths — a persistent policy gap and an energy shock — aren't really in conflict. They're distinct routes to the same directional call: a weaker euro.