Assets

• Cross-assetHormuz tensions are today's dominant macro story, and published research is rippling it through every asset class at once.
• GoldGold's outlook is split by time horizon: bearish for the coming quarters, but with a durable long-term bull case still intact. There's no clean consensus for the next few months.
• SilverSilver's outlook splits by time horizon, and the published research is telling a "worse before better" story.
• CopperCopper research is genuinely split heading into 2026, and the disagreement is about macro fundamentals, not timing.
• OilOil research is split by time horizon, not by facts.
• Natural gasNatural gas has a clean bullish setup right now, according to recently published research — both in near-term European prices and in longer-dated global LNG.
• BitcoinPublished research this week leans firmly bullish on Bitcoin, with two distinct cases converging on higher prices.
• US equitiesUS equities lean constructive in the latest wave of published research — but chips are flagged as a near-term soft spot, and the multi-year math on broad index returns is drawing skeptics.
• European equitiesEuropean equities: a split screen between near-term caution and long-term conviction, according to recently published research.
• US bondsPublished research this week leans bearish on US Treasuries, with most analysts expecting yields to grind higher — though one contrarian voice sees a dovish pivot ahead.
• EU bondsEuropean rates and credit: a split picture from this week's published research.
• EUR/USDPublished research this week lines up firmly bearish on EUR/USD, with multiple independent analyses pointing to near-term downside.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo stories are dominating macro desks today: a fresh flare-up between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of whether Fed Chair Warsh is really about to hike.