European rates and credit: a split picture from this week's published research.
On sovereigns, the research consensus points to German 10-year Bund yields drifting higher. Analysts tie the move to a fresh global inflation impulse from renewed Middle East tensions and the resulting oil spike — and note Europe, more reliant on imported energy, shows sharper front-end sensitivity than the US. One camp argues Eurozone yields stay under upward pressure as long as that oil-driven risk premium sticks around.
On spreads, a contrarian thread flags widening risk between French and German 10-year yields, citing French fiscal uncertainty and the April 2027 election cycle as catalysts. Little relief is expected without fiscal clarity.
In euro credit, published views lean modestly constructive on select names. Researchers highlight switch trades within single issuers (buying one maturity, selling another) across European banks, energy infrastructure, and autos — positioning on the curve rather than making outright sector bets. Standalone buy calls appear on a handful of financials; one French hospitality name draws a sell.