Two stories are dominating macro desks today: a fresh flare-up between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of whether Fed Chair Warsh is really about to hike.
Published research broadly agrees that renewed US strikes on Iran and the revoked oil-export waiver have pushed Brent up 3–6% toward $76–$79, lifted European gas, and widened the geopolitical risk premium. The Strait remains the chokepoint linking regional conflict to global inflation. Europe is taking the harder hit — analysts point to Bund yields up 10bp and Gilts up 13bp — while the US looks partly cushioned by record domestic output near 13.6m bpd.
On the Fed, most commentary is focused on the June FOMC minutes and whether they confirm a hawkish pivot, with markets pricing 30–35bp of additional tightening by year-end. A contrarian thread argues the opposite: softening labor data and pre-shock energy trends mean cuts, not hikes, are the likelier path into 2027. Some observers also flag that equity vol looks oddly calm versus oil vol — commodities are absorbing the shock, stocks aren't.
Watch the minutes, US CPI, and the 10-year auction next.