Oil research is split by time horizon, not by facts.
The published consensus this week leans bullish on crude in the near term. Analysts broadly point to renewed US–Iran confrontation, revoked Iranian export waivers, and attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as putting sustained upward pressure on Brent and WTI. Researchers also cite supporting fundamentals: US inventory draws, Brent returning to backwardation, and an 18% spike in oil's volatility index — signs the options market is actively pricing geopolitical risk.
One thread of recent research argues refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) may face even stiffer pressure than crude, given damaged Gulf refining capacity, lean retail inventories, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries hitting diesel exports. Some published views see ICE Gasoil holding above $50/bbl.
The dissent is strategic, not tactical. A contrarian camp looks through the spike and projects oversupply into late 2026 and 2027, with forecasts of crude averaging $80/bbl in 2026 and $75/bbl in 2027 as production recovers and inventories rebuild.