Copper research is genuinely split heading into 2026, and the disagreement is about macro fundamentals, not timing.
One camp of analysts has turned more constructive, lifting the copper outlook and projecting a record annual average near $6.00/lb next year. The argument: mine supply is stagnant while Chinese smelting capacity keeps expanding, driving chronic concentrate deficits. Layer on structural demand from AI data centers and the broader electrification push, and the published bull case sees prices grinding higher.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back for the same window. These analysts argue elevated oil prices and a broader economic slowdown will drag on global activity, hitting copper demand and leaving prices flat to lower through the second half of 2026.
What makes this notable is that both views cover the same horizon. It isn't a timing mismatch — it's a real split on whether supply deficits and secular demand win out, or whether energy costs and a cyclical slowdown dominate. Worth watching how the tape resolves it.