Natural gas has a clean bullish setup right now, according to recently published research — both in near-term European prices and in longer-dated global LNG.
On the near-term side, analysts point out that Dutch TTF has broken above EUR 48/MWh while European storage sits just under 51%, well below the five-year average of 66%. LNG imports into Europe have slipped as Asian buyers outbid for spot cargoes amid Middle East supply disruptions, and Persian Gulf tensions add to the tightness heading into heating season.
A separate strand of research takes a more structural view on LNG specifically. The argument: normalisation will be far slower than many expect, given a shortage of LNG tankers, infrastructure damage in Qatar, and the risk that a stronger El Niño lifts Asian and European demand at the same time. Those dynamics could keep global LNG supply constrained for several years.
The split is clear: TTF is the immediate squeeze, LNG the multi-year structural story. Both carry upside calls in the published work.