Published research this week lines up firmly bearish on EUR/USD, with multiple independent analyses pointing to near-term downside.
One camp of researchers frames the weakness as a broad dollar-strength story: widening US rate differentials and carry flows are pulling capital into dollars, with EUR/USD moving inversely to a rising dollar index. A separate analytical thread layers on a Europe-specific problem — political stress in France, including potential strain in French bond markets, plus an empty eurozone data calendar that leaves the pair exposed to a break below 1.140. Another strand of recent research emphasizes the energy channel: as a major energy importer, the eurozone absorbs a structural hit from higher oil and gas prices, and Fed-versus-Europe yield gaps reinforce the pressure.
Where's the pushback? Barely any on direction. One conditional view flags that a softer US inflation print or a less hawkish tilt from a potential Fed pick could trigger a dollar reversal — but that's event-dependent, not a base case.