Assets

• Cross-assetCross-asset markets are flashing a stagflationary supply shock signal, according to the published research consensus this week.
• GoldGold's outlook splits sharply by time horizon, according to recently published research: bearish in the near term, still firmly bullish over the long run.
• SilverSilver: published research is broadly bullish long-term, but split on whether the low is in.
• CopperCopper is a tale of two timeframes right now, according to recently published research.
• OilCrude oil: the published research consensus is firmly bullish, with Brent and WTI seen staying elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz disruption from the Iran–US conflict drags on.
• Natural gasPublished research is uniformly bullish on natural gas across every horizon, with the consensus pointing to structurally higher Henry Hub, TTF, and LNG-linked prices.
• BitcoinBitcoin's recent slide may be a warning, not a dip to buy — at least according to one strand of newly published research.
• US equitiesUS equities are facing one of the most divided research debates of the cycle: bears warn of an AI bubble and stretched valuations, while bulls see a mid-cycle expansion with room to run.
• European equitiesEuropean equities look mixed today, with the DAX opening softer while a few single names are moving on their own catalysts.
• US bondsPublished research is largely lining up on one side: US Treasury yields are heading higher, or at least staying elevated, with one notable contrarian exception.
• EU bondsPublished research this week leans hawkish on European rates: most analysts expect Eurozone sovereign yields and ECB policy rates to grind higher as energy-driven inflation keeps the central bank in tightening mode.
• EUR/USDPublished research this week leans heavily bearish on the euro against the dollar in the near term, with most analysts expecting EUR/USD to drift toward or below the lower end of the 1.14–1.18 range.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo macro stories are colliding this week, according to a wide reading of recently published research: an oil-and-inflation shock from the US–Iran conflict, and an AI-driven US investment boom.