Crude oil: the published research consensus is firmly bullish, with Brent and WTI seen staying elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz disruption from the Iran–US conflict drags on.
Most analysts argue restricted Hormuz transit, falling global inventories, and a sticky geopolitical risk premium keep prices bid. One published view warns Brent could spike to $120–130 by end-July if flows don't resume, with a Q3 average near $110. Another camp sees a "violent upside breakout" once physical tightness overwhelms peace-deal hopes. A more strategic thread extends the bullish call into 2027–2028, citing infrastructure damage that slows any supply recovery, and flags the long inflationary tail of supply shocks even after partial reopening.
Longer-horizon research is more mixed: some pencil in roughly $90 in 2026 easing to $79 in 2027, while a contrarian tactical view sees a technical breakdown toward $79–80 and references recession-scenario forecasts as low as $40. A few analysts also note markets may be desensitizing to Hormuz headlines if rerouting offsets lost flows.