Gold's outlook splits sharply by time horizon, according to recently published research: bearish in the near term, still firmly bullish over the long run.
On the cautious side, several research notes this week point to rising US Treasury yields and a hawkish Fed as the dominant near-term headwinds. Gold has already erased its year-to-date gains and broken below its 200-day moving average. One thread of analysis adds that emerging-market central banks, squeezed by the energy shock tied to the Hormuz crisis, are selling gold to raise cash — adding pressure through the summer. Other technically-oriented work flags weak seasonality and the need to flush out speculative positioning, citing $3,500–$3,600 as strong support before a durable bottom.
On the strategic side, the published consensus stays bullish. Researchers point to sovereign and institutional buying, chronic underinvestment in new mine supply, deglobalization, deficit spending, and a structural shift toward gold as global collateral. One projection making the rounds: $6,500/oz within 12 months, contingent on inflation running at 6–7%.
The apparent split is really a horizon story, not a disagreement.