Assets

• Cross-assetAcross markets today, the dominant signal is a geopolitics-driven inflation squeeze: Middle East supply disruption is pushing oil higher, feeding sticky US inflation, lifting yields, and pressuring gold, Bitcoin, and…
• GoldGold's near-term picture looks bearish across most published research, even as the long-run bull case stays intact.
• SilverSilver: the published research consensus is bearish, with no bullish counter-camp visible right now.
• PlatinumPlatinum is facing near-term pressure, according to recently published research.
• PalladiumPalladium looks set to retreat from recent highs in the near term, according to research published this week.
• OilPublished oil research this week is uniformly bullish — across short-term traders, cyclical analysts, and long-horizon strategists, the consensus points higher.
• BitcoinPublished research is lining up bearish on Bitcoin, and the debate among analysts is how deep the selloff goes — not whether it continues.
• US equitiesUS equities are caught in a real tug-of-war: near-term technical warnings versus a structurally constructive longer-term setup.
• European equitiesEuropean equities are stuck in a clear downtrend on positioning, and published research this week sees no near-term catalyst to turn it around.
• US bondsPublished research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — meaning lower bond prices — though the picture splits by time horizon.
• EU bondsEuropean rates are tilting higher, with one tactical exception right before this week's ECB meeting.
• EUR/USDPublished research is leaning against the euro heading into key macro events, and the flow data backs it up.

Macro

• Macro themesThree forces dominated macro commentary today: sticky US inflation, the US–Iran flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the AI capex boom can keep paying off.