Published research is uniformly bullish on natural gas across every horizon, with the consensus pointing to structurally higher Henry Hub, TTF, and LNG-linked prices.
The trigger, analysts argue, is the Strait of Hormuz supply shock, which has squeezed LNG export volumes and left European storage well below seasonal norms — recent research flags TTF storage at 43% versus a five-year average of 57%, creating urgency for summer injections and elevated prices into winter. Multiple research notes project European gas averaging 40–45% above pre-conflict forecasts through 2026, with some extending that pressure into 2028. One thread emphasises that supply shocks have long tails: inflationary pricing tends to persist for months even after partial reopening.
On the US side, the published consensus frames AI and data centre electricity demand as a structural floor under Henry Hub. Researchers also flag new Mexican and Gulf Coast LNG export capacity intensifying competition for Western US supply and lifting basis premiums.
Apparent disagreements are mostly scenario brackets or timing, not directional splits.