Two macro stories are colliding this week, according to a wide reading of recently published research: an oil-and-inflation shock from the US–Iran conflict, and an AI-driven US investment boom.
On energy, the published consensus flags a potential Strait of Hormuz closure as the biggest upside risk to global inflation, with some recent analysis sketching a Brent spike to $120–130/bbl. US CPI at 4.2% YoY is widely cited as reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" rate path under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, though researchers note softer core readings soften the blow. The ECB's June 25bp hike has analysts split on whether September brings another move given euro area stagflation risks.
On AI, one camp argues a $550–800bn hyperscaler capex wave is a durable pillar for US growth and equities. A contrarian thread warns of data-centre overcapacity and dot-com-style bubble dynamics.
Geographically, researchers see the US absorbing the energy shock best, Europe drifting toward stagflation (GDP cut to 0.7–0.8%), and Asian importers — and their currencies — most exposed.