Published research is largely lining up on one side: US Treasury yields are heading higher, or at least staying elevated, with one notable contrarian exception.
The shared thesis across recent research centers on sticky inflation — driven by energy shocks tied partly to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — alongside structurally large US deficits that keep Treasury supply heavy. Several analyst camps argue this is a regime shift to durably higher inflation, with real yields and TIPS preferred over nominal duration as an inflation hedge. One of the more aggressive published calls sees the 10-year yield approaching 6% over the next 6–12 months on commodity-driven Fed tightening. Others target the 4.5–4.75% range. A separate strand favors a 2s30s steepener as long-end yields outrun the front end.
In credit, views split: one camp expects high-yield spreads to widen as the 2027–28 LBO maturity wall bites, while another sees developed-market high yield and securitized credit as among H2 2026's most attractive sectors.
The lone contrarian call hinges on energy disruptions easing — a scenario most other researchers reject.