Published research is lining up bearish on Bitcoin, and the debate among analysts is how deep the selloff goes — not whether it continues.
One strand of recent research ties the weakness to the unwinding of the "dollar debasement" trade: rising US real yields are pulling money back into dollar assets, with $60,000 flagged as the line in the sand. A technical camp echoes that level, citing Fibonacci support near $57,800 and no positive catalysts on the horizon.
Chart-focused analysts go further, pointing to a bear-flag breakdown and a developing head-and-shoulders pattern that would put $50,000–$53,000 as the next support, with $35,000 floated as a worst case if the neckline breaks alongside a sharper tech selloff.
A separate thread of research focuses on ETF flows, arguing most spot-Bitcoin ETF holders are now underwater — and that further downside could trigger capitulation and accelerating outflows, a dynamic typical of late-stage bear markets.
A cyclically bullish counter exists, but it's explicitly conditional on a liquidity injection from the Fed or Treasury.