European rates are tilting higher, with one tactical exception right before this week's ECB meeting.
That's the read emerging from recently published research on EU bonds. Researchers point to hawkish spillover from US data — sticky inflation and resilient growth — as the dominant force pushing global yields up, and euro sovereigns aren't insulated from it. A separate strand of analysis notes that Eurozone 10-year yields have dipped tactically as investors reposition ahead of the ECB decision, which looks more like event-driven short-covering than a real shift in the rate outlook.
Further out, the published consensus is more hawkish. EURIBOR has ticked higher as money markets begin pricing the odds of a fourth ECB rate hike extending into 2027. On German Bunds, flow-based research suggests institutional positioning has stayed in net selling territory, pointing to continued upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months.
The apparent split between "yields down" and "yields up" calls isn't really a disagreement — it's the same trajectory viewed across different time horizons.