Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — meaning lower bond prices — though the picture splits by time horizon.
The dominant thread among analysts: sticky inflation keeps the Fed on a hawkish footing. One widely cited tracker puts real-time price growth above 5%, and some forecasts see CPI ticking up to 4.2%. Several research notes argue another Fed hike this year is plausible, with one camp targeting roughly 4.50% on the 10-year by year-end and flagging upside risk toward 5%. The 30-year approaching 5% is described in published commentary as a level that would start to worry the broader economy. Event risk around CPI prints and Treasury auctions is cited as a near-term catalyst for yields to grind higher.
The contrarian thread: one strategic view argues today's elevated starting yields actually make high-quality Treasuries attractive over a five-year horizon, betting central banks retain room to cut in a downturn. A separate cyclical call sees yields falling as growth outside AI and tech weakens.
On credit, some recently published views favor Agency MBS and high-quality fixed income while warning of a rising default cycle in leveraged loans and private direct lending.