Three forces dominated macro commentary today: sticky US inflation, the US–Iran flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the AI capex boom can keep paying off.
On inflation, the published research consensus frames tomorrow's May CPI print (expected near 4.2% YoY, mostly energy-driven) as the pivotal release, with a "higher-for-longer" rate path now baseline. A contrarian thread argues the Fed remains structurally behind neutral despite a softer 0.2% MoM core, while other analysts read the energy spike as a transitory supply shock that justifies patience. The June 18 FOMC under new Chair Warsh is the next major catalyst.
On energy, researchers broadly flag renewed US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz as a persistent tail risk; Brent briefly topped $94. One camp stresses the binary nature of any negotiated off-ramp, while others note markets are visibly desensitising to repeated flare-ups.
On AI, some recently-published views remain constructive on earnings and chip demand, while sceptics point to stretched capex-to-cash-flow ratios, token pricing pressure, and concentration risk in a projected $700bn+ infrastructure cycle.