Published research is leaning against the euro heading into key macro events, and the flow data backs it up.
The consensus in recent research is that EUR/USD stays under pressure, with US data and a potentially hawkish Fed meeting keeping the dollar bid. One published view argues that even a firm US inflation print is unlikely to push the pair below the 1.1500 support level, with resistance flagged at 1.1575 — and continued Fed rate-hike pricing tilting the balance toward the dollar.
A separate strand of flow research reinforces the bearish read: euro net selling picked up in May, with Middle East tensions weighing on Europe's growth outlook and cooling demand for European assets more broadly.
Notably, there's no real disagreement across the research surveyed — just different time horizons. One camp is tactical and event-driven, the other cyclical over the coming months. Neither flags a near-term catalyst capable of turning the euro around.