Assets
- Cross-assetHawkish Fed repricing is the dominant cross-asset signal this week, according to the published research consensus. A hot October core CPI print has markets fully pricing a December hike, pushing the dollar toward year…
- GoldGold's story right now depends entirely on your time horizon: tactically bearish, structurally still constructive.
- SilverSilver: bullish long term, murky short term — that's the takeaway from one strand of recently published research making the rounds.
- OilPublished oil research is leaning bearish, but the calls hinge on one thing: the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the Iran conflict ending.
- Natural gasPublished research is split on natural gas by region and timeframe: Europe looks firmer into winter, softer by 2027, while US Henry Hub lacks a clear direction.
- BitcoinBitcoin's near-term path has published research pulling in two directions, but the disagreement may be more about timeframe than substance.
- US equitiesUS equities: published research leans constructive, but with a real tactical-vs-structural split.
- European equitiesGerman equities look set for a firmer open, with early research commentary pointing to the DAX reclaiming the 26,600 level as buyers step back in.
- US bondsPublished research this week leans toward higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year near 5% after a hot October CPI print and strong payrolls — though a minority view sees relief coming later.
- EU bondsEuropean rate expectations are pulling in two directions, and there's no clean consensus on where Bund yields go next.
- EUR/USDPublished research this week leans bearish on the euro into year-end, with a recovery not expected until 2028.
- USD/JPYPublished research leans toward a stronger yen over the medium term, even as USD/JPY pushes against the 158.50–160 zone where intervention risk looms.
Macro
- Macro themesHot US October CPI has flipped markets toward a more hawkish Fed, with a December hike now fully priced and a debate opening over whether it could be 50bp rather than 25bp.
- Policy makersCentral banks are tilting hawkish as the Middle East energy shock feeds back into inflation, with published research pointing to more tightening if second-round effects take hold.
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Every morning, what published research argued the day before: the cross-asset and macro read in full, then every market in a line.