Published oil research is leaning bearish, but the calls hinge on one thing: the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the Iran conflict ending.
The dominant view among researchers is that crude drifts lower as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds, Middle East supply recovers, and a surplus builds into 2027. Analysts in this camp point to a 9 million barrel US crude build, steady US supply growth, and premium cuts from major Gulf producers. One recently published estimate raised the 2027 surplus call to 1.5 million barrels a day.
A smaller bullish thread pushes back. Some research notes visible inventories have dropped more than 500 million barrels since February, and warns that shorting here is risky after the sharpest sell-off since 2020. One outlier forecast sees Brent at $110 by year-end on escalation risk.
On medium-term levels, published forecasts cluster around Brent at $95 end-2026 easing to $75–81 by 2027, with futures markets pricing a similar glide path. If peace holds, the floor most analysts cite sits near $70.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): WTI crude oil: speculators (managed money) are net long, 1.1% of open interest. Positioning is mid-range (COT index 39 of 100), not at an extreme. The net position fell by 9,400 contracts on the week.