Central banks are tilting hawkish as the Middle East energy shock feeds back into inflation, with published research pointing to more tightening if second-round effects take hold.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller (a voter) is said to lean toward a 25bp hike in December, stepping up to 50bp if October core CPI prints near 0.3% or higher. The Dallas Fed President is described as the most hawkish, calling for at least two more 25bp moves, possibly faster this winter. Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman is characterised as more balanced — inflation first, but no preset path. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel is reported as defending timely action, with other euro-area commentary suggesting October's pause doesn't close the door on further hikes. The Bank of England delivered a 25bp hike to 4.0% on a derived 8-1 vote, with research reads suggesting another move may still be needed. Norway's Governor Ida Wolden Bache held at 4.5% but signalled readiness to go further.
Where analysts diverge: the pace. One camp favours firm, faster hikes; another stresses gradualism and data dependence. Key catalyst: US October CPI.
By the numbers:
• Policy rates: Fed 3.75–4.00%, ECB 2.50%, BoE 3.75%, BoJ 1.25%.
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates