Published research is split on natural gas by region and timeframe: Europe looks firmer into winter, softer by 2027, while US Henry Hub lacks a clear direction.
On Europe's near term, analysts point to below-average temperatures, weak wind, storage around 74% and already in withdrawal, falling pipeline and LNG imports, and an Asian price premium forcing Europe to pay up for cargoes. One camp sees TTF front-month pushing back toward €100/MWh within days. A parallel view flags that storage sits well below the 83% seen in 2025 and 95% in 2024, with the Russian LNG phase-out from January 2027 adding replacement demand.
Looking to 2027, a separate thread of research argues roughly 90-100 bcm of new LNG capacity, mostly US and front-loaded, plus a gradual Qatari recovery, should ease prices — with TTF averaging about €80 in Q1, €45 in Q2-Q3, and €55 by year-end. Market-implied paths sit near €70, but researchers flag upside tail risk around €135 in extreme scenarios.
On Henry Hub, the consensus is rangebound at $2.80-2.95/MMBtu as warm weather offsets strong LNG feedgas.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026; ESMA, as of 30 Oct 2026): US natural gas (Henry Hub): speculators (managed money) are net short, 13.4% of open interest, the largest net short in a year, crowded short (COT index 0). Dutch TTF gas: speculators (investment funds) are net long, 9.9% of open interest, mid-range (COT index 67).