Published research this week leans toward higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year near 5% after a hot October CPI print and strong payrolls — though a minority view sees relief coming later.
The case rests on sticky core inflation, a resilient labor market, and hawkish Fed commentary. A second theme across recent notes is supply: persistent deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, and the capital demands of the AI buildout. Softer gasoline prices and a potentially slower AI capex cycle are the main offsets researchers flag.
On the long end, several analysts argue 5% on the 10-year is justified and may persist, with one camp calling it a secular bear market in bonds. A contrarian thread suggests the 10-year could drift toward 4% by 2027 if oil falls and geopolitical risks ease. On the front end, markets are priced for a December Fed hike plus more by June.
In credit, the consensus is tilted toward wider investment-grade spreads as hyperscalers issue jumbo deals, with some published views notably bearish on high yield.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Speculators (leveraged funds) are net short in all four contracts. US Treasury bond has the smallest net short in a year (COT index 94); US 2-year note (75) and US 5-year note (71) are near the top of their 52-week range; US 10-year note (19) is near the bottom of its 52-week range.
• Federal Reserve policy rate 3.75–4.00%, last move +25 bp on 17 Sep 2026. Next decision 9 Dec 2026.
• United States 10-year yield 4.98%, 2-year 4.73% (U.S. Department of the Treasury, 10 Nov 2026).
Charts: finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates/federal-reserve