US equities: published research leans constructive, but with a real tactical-vs-structural split.
The dominant view in this week's research is that the recent AI/tech selloff looks more like hedge-fund deleveraging than a fundamental break, with several analysts pointing to historically strong post-midterm returns and discounted tech valuations. Strong CoreWeave results and Anthropic IPO demand are cited as easing the AI bear case.
A cautious minority pushes back, flagging a Shiller CAPE near 40x, heavy index concentration, fragility to any bear turn, and a flat 12-month index outlook.
On levels, one bullish camp targets S&P 8,000 by year-end and 10,000 by 2027; another camp sees roughly flat 12-month returns, with 7,328 (the 200-day) as the key downside marker.
On rotation, researchers variously favor banks, small-cap value, equal-weight exposure, and defensives like health care and staples, while flagging industrials as crowded.
Nvidia is the most contested name: some analysts cite CEO-succession risk as a sell catalyst, while others would buy weakness, arguing the AI theme outlasts any leadership change.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 3 Nov 2026): Speculators (leveraged funds) are net long Nasdaq-100 (E-mini) and net short S&P 500 (E-mini) and Russell 2000 (E-mini). Nasdaq-100 (E-mini) is at the crowded-long extreme (COT index 93: the largest net long in a year); S&P 500 (E-mini) (51) and Russell 2000 (E-mini) (57) are mid-range.