Assets

• Cross-assetOil is the master variable right now. Published research this week converges on a single read: a Middle East supply shock is simultaneously lifting global bond yields, supporting the dollar, pressuring emerging-market…
• GoldGold's near-term setup looks shaky, but the long-term bull case is still very much alive — at least according to the research crossing desks this week.
• SilverSilver research is split by time horizon — near-term caution, but one strikingly bullish strategic call further out.
• OilCrude oil research skews bullish, with most published work pointing to a structural supply deficit driven by Strait of Hormuz disruption — though a credible bearish scenario exists if a US-Iran deal reopens the strait.
• Natural gasNatural gas: the published research consensus is modestly bullish — but with a clear regional split, and US Henry Hub as the standout laggard.
• BitcoinBitcoin is flashing warning signs in the near term, according to a cluster of recently published research.
• US equitiesPublished research is leaning broadly bullish on US equities across tactical and strategic horizons, with the few bearish calls being conditional rather than outright.
• European equitiesEuropean equities are getting a constructive read this week, with the strongest published conviction concentrated in small caps, defence, nuclear power, and energy infrastructure.
• US bondsPublished research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields across the curve — bearish for bond prices — with only narrow, conditional exceptions.
• EU bondsEuropean rates look set to grind higher, with ECB tightening the dominant theme in recent published research.
• EUR/USDPublished research turns more bearish on the euro: a fresh forecast revision argues EUR/USD will trade in the 1.13–1.15 range in the second half of 2026, down from a prior 1.20 target.

Macro

• Macro themesToday's macro tape is dominated by one story: the Middle East energy shock and what it means for inflation and central banks.