Today's macro tape is dominated by one story: the Middle East energy shock and what it means for inflation and central banks.
Published research this week argues the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could remove 13–20 million barrels per day of oil from global supply, with inventories at critically low levels and upside price risk extending into 2027. A broad consensus across recent analyst notes ties this to the fastest global inflation acceleration since 2022, with headline CPI running 3–7% across major economies.
The policy read is split. One camp of analysts expects the Fed to hold and other major central banks to hike into 2026. A contrarian thread argues markets are overpricing hikes and that cuts arrive within a year. Others warn sticky energy-driven inflation forces tightening.
Geographically, researchers flag Asia as most exposed — 80% of Hormuz flows head there — with India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka facing real fiscal strain, while China leans on reserves.
A separate widely-discussed theme: the AI capex supercycle is lifting earnings but tightening power markets and adding structural inflation risk. Some recent views warn of bubble dynamics in venture AI funding.
Watch: ceasefire headlines, US core PCE, and BOJ.