Published research turns more bearish on the euro: a fresh forecast revision argues EUR/USD will trade in the 1.13–1.15 range in the second half of 2026, down from a prior 1.20 target.
The case, according to recently published G10 FX research, rests on revived "US exceptionalism" — the idea that the American economy keeps outperforming peers on growth and yields, while the euro area remains stuck with weaker growth and lower interest rates.
Analysts behind the call frame this as a structural reassessment rather than a short-term tactical shift. In their view, the cyclical setup points to sustained dollar strength against the euro through H2 2026, not a quick bounce that fades.
Worth noting: this is one camp's published view, not a consensus. But the size of the revision — roughly five to seven cents lower on the pair — is a notable vote of confidence in the dollar story heading into next year.