Crude oil research skews bullish, with most published work pointing to a structural supply deficit driven by Strait of Hormuz disruption — though a credible bearish scenario exists if a US-Iran deal reopens the strait.
The bull case, echoed across multiple research desks, is that the Hormuz closure has removed roughly 10–20% of global crude and refined-product supply, inventories are thin, and other suppliers can't fill the gap quickly. One published view cites IEA expectations for the crude market to stay severely undersupplied through at least October 2026. Some analysts flag a spike toward $150–$200/bbl if the strait stays shut another month; one model puts WTI at $167 within three quarters under a prolonged closure. The published consensus is that renewed US-Iran tensions have re-embedded a geopolitical risk premium.
The bear thread argues a genuine deal could send prices back to the $70s. A contrarian view sees $90 as a floor and expects a rebound regardless.
On refined products, researchers flag jet fuel and diesel as the next pressure points.