Assets

• Cross-assetMarkets today are riding a geopolitics-driven risk-on rotation, and researchers say the catalyst is a possible US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The published research consensus is that this single event…
• GoldPublished research this week argues that recent softness in gold is a buying opportunity, not a top.
• SilverSilver's pullback is being framed by some published research as an accumulation window, not a warning sign.
• Natural gasPublished research this week makes a structurally bullish case for European natural gas, with supply security — not near-term demand — driving the thesis.
• BitcoinBitcoin: the published research mood is uniformly bearish, with three independent strands of recent analysis all pointing lower — they only disagree on how far and how fast.
• US equitiesPublished research this week leans broadly constructive on US equities, with the loudest conviction sitting in AI-infrastructure names.
• US bondsTreasury yields are pulling in two directions at once, according to recent third-party research — softer in the near term, but stickier or higher over the medium term.
• EU bondsPublished research is leaning bearish on European bonds, with multiple analysts arguing yields have further to climb as inflation proves sticky and the ECB stays in tightening mode.
• EUR/USDPublished research is split on EUR/USD, with two camps arguing the euro grinds higher and a third holding a conviction short.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo forces dominate the macro conversation right now, with a third running through both, according to recently published research.