Natural gas: the published research consensus is modestly bullish — but with a clear regional split, and US Henry Hub as the standout laggard.
Researchers argue that Poland's role as a transit point for Russian supply makes European gas highly exposed to geopolitical shock; any disruption would spike prices, since LNG imports can't backfill quickly. A longer-term strand of analysis frames Europe's persistent reliance on outside suppliers, combined with deepening geopolitical fragility, as a structural reason to expect European gas prices to stay elevated.
A contrarian thread of recent research turns bearish specifically on US Henry Hub. The argument: higher crude prices pull more Permian output, which drags up associated gas supply. US LNG export capacity is growing, but not fast enough to soak up the glut — so Henry Hub is seen sliding from a small premium to a notable discount versus its historical real-price trend.
On US LNG export volumes themselves, some recently-published views see them as a longer-dated winner as Qatari supply risks linger into late decade.