Stance over time
Each dot is one speech or statement by the BoC, scored from dovish to hawkish; the line is the trailing 30-day average. Hover a dot for the date and speaker.
Latest decision
Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Upside risks to inflation have increased while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain.
- Rate
- Bank of Canada policy interest rate
- Source
- Monetary Policy Decision
Decision history
| Date | Action | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Hold | 2.25% | - |
| 2 Sep 2026 | Hold | 2.25% | - |
| 15 Jul 2026 | Hold | 2.25% | - |
BoC forecasts: real GDP growth
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 0.7% | - | 1.8% | - |
| World | 2.8% | - | 3.3% | - |
BoC forecasts: inflation
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | - | - | 2.0% | - |
Revision is the change from the bank’s previous edition, in percentage points.
Recent speeches and statements
- 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
Staff model results suggest monetary policy should not look through shelter inflation when it is driven by housing demand shocks, especially with extrapolative expectations. Looking through temporary housing supply shocks may be welfare-enhancing.
shelter inflationhousing marketmonetary policy rulesfinancial stabilitymortgage interest costsConduct of Monetary Policy under Housing Market Imbalances → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
Valuation gains on Canada's net foreign assets have relaxed the current-account adjustment needed to stabilize its external position, permitting higher national expenditure than would otherwise have been feasible.
external balance sheetcurrent accountvaluation effectsfxfinancial stabilityCanada’s Cross-Border Carry Trade → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchStéphane Surprenant
Monetary policy can materially affect housing-market conditions by weakening demand, but its direct influence on housing supply is limited and gradual, so it has limited scope to address housing affordability through supply adjustments.
housingmonetary policy transmissionhouse pricesmortgageshousing supplyDemand roars, supply whispers: Monetary policy and housing in Canada → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchEmilio Colombi
Positive commodity price shocks reduce labor income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in commodity exporters, via a construction-led expansion that lowers the skill premium. Saving the windfall in a sovereign wealth fund amplifies the effect; redistributing it away from capitalists dampens it.
commodity pricesincome inequalitydutch diseasesovereign wealth fundconstruction sectorThe Distributional Consequences of Commodity Booms → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
Auction timing is a limited but well-defined secondary margin: scheduled events such as monetary policy announcements, CPI and labour market reports are linked to higher same-day volatility and larger auction tails, so they can inform date selection but not as a mechanical rule.
government bond auctionsdebt managementmarket volatilityauction tailsmarket functioningAuction Timing Under Limited Information: Evidence from Sovereign Bond Auctions → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
Monitoring of financial vulnerabilities may benefit from adding measures of perceived stress, such as the news-based stress index, alongside traditional market-based indicators.
financial stabilitynews-based stress indexconsumer credithousehold precautionary behaviourtext analyticsStress in the Press or Stress in the Market: A New Measure of Perceived Financial Stress → - 16 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
Looking through supply-shock-induced inflation is only advisable when the central bank can communicate credible and focal projections to guide expectations; otherwise a stronger Lean-Against response curbs inflation sooner.
supply shocksinflation expectationscentral bank communicationmonetary policy frameworkinflation targetingBeyond "Looking Through": Monetary Policy Responses and Communication Under Supply-Driven Inflation → - 15 Oct 2026 · ResearchBank of Canada
No single oil price forecasting approach works best in every situation: the latest price is a strong short-term forecast and benchmark, futures are more informative beyond one year, and models can modestly improve accuracy and explain supply, demand and other drivers.
oil pricesforecastingenergyinflationForecasting oil prices: What works best and when → - 7 Oct 2026 · SpeechBank of Canada
Targeting house prices directly with interest rates would ask monetary policy to do more than it can; the Bank's best contribution is price stability, with housing remaining an important input into policy decisions.
housing affordabilitymonetary policy frameworkfinancial stabilityshelter costs in cpimortgage regulationCanada’s housing affordability dilemma → - 6 Oct 2026 · SpeechBank of Canada
The Bank will use the CCMS tri-party platform for its repo operations from Q1 2027 and plans to centrally clear its repo operations via CDCC once clearing modernization is largely complete in 2028. It will use ORs and larger two-week term repos to keep CORRA near target, even if reserves temporarily exceed the $50-70 billion range.
repo marketsmonetary policy implementationbalance sheetmarket infrastructurecentral clearingRepo markets and monetary policy implementation → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechCarolyn Rogers
The policy rate should not be used to address rising home prices; the Bank best contributes to affordability by keeping inflation low and stable.
housingmonetary policy frameworkinflation measurementThe complexity of housing affordability → - 1 Oct 2026 · SpeechCarolyn Rogers
The Bank's best contribution to housing affordability is price stability; housing remains an input to policy, but targeting house prices directly with interest rates would ask monetary policy to do more than it can.
housingfinancial stabilitymonetary policy frameworkinflation measurementCanada’s housing affordability dilemma → - 29 Sep 2026 · SpeechToni Gravelle
The Bank will use overnight and two-week term repo operations as needed to keep CORRA near the policy rate, even if reserves temporarily move outside the $50-70 billion estimated steady-state range; it will join the CCMS tri-party platform in Q1 2027.
repo marketsmonetary policy implementationbalance sheetmarket infrastructureRepo markets and monetary policy implementation → - 24 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.3Bank of Canada
The Bank will assess whether the current policy rate balances the risks to inflation. It does not want to raise rates if inflationary pressures are contained, nor be too slow to respond if they become more persistent. It is prepared to adjust policy as needed.
inflationenergy pricestariffstrademonetary policyNavigating uncertainty and adapting to change → - 21 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.3Tiff Macklem
We will assess whether the current policy rate balances the risks: we don't want to raise rates if inflationary pressures are contained, nor be too slow to respond if they become more persistent.
inflationenergytradetariffsaiNavigating uncertainty and adapting to change → - 21 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.3Tiff Macklem
The Bank will assess whether trade and energy shocks have lasting effects on inflation and growth, with the job of keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
inflationenergytradestructural changeAdapting to structural forces, navigating uncertainty → - 16 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +0.3HoldBank of Canada
Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Upside risks to inflation have increased while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain.
inflationenergytariffsgrowthmonetary policyMonetary Policy Decision → - 16 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +0.5Bank of Canada
Policy rate left at 2.25%; if higher energy prices spill over into other CPI components, a monetary policy response could be required to prevent broad-based inflation.
inflationenergytariffsgrowthSummary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of September 2, 2026 → - 2 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +0.3HoldBank of Canada
Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Upside risks to inflation have increased while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain.
inflationenergytariffsgrowthmonetary policyMonetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement → - 2 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +0.3HoldBank of Canada
Governing Council will assess the sustainability of the economic rebound and the outlook for inflation, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed. Upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain.
inflationenergytariffsgrowthlabour marketBank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% → - 15 Jul 2026 · Rate decisionNeutral 0.0HoldTiff Macklem
Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the recovery and return inflation to 2%, and is prepared to adjust policy as needed. The Bank will not let higher oil prices become persistent inflation.
inflationenergytrade policyeconomic growthlabour marketTiff Macklem: Release of the Monetary Policy Report → - 15 Jul 2026 · MinutesNeutral 0.0HoldBank of Canada
Governing Council will look through the direct effects of higher oil prices but will not let them lead to persistent inflation. The current stance is appropriate, and policy will be adjusted as needed to maintain confidence in price stability.
inflationoil pricestariffsgrowth outlooklabour marketSummary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of July 15, 2026 →
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How this page is made
We collect what central banks and multilateral institutions publish: rate decisions, meeting minutes, officials’ speeches and staff projections. AI reads each document and records who is speaking, whether they vote on policy, the forward guidance, any decision taken and any forecasts.
Stance is scored from strongly dovish (−2) to strongly hawkish (+2): above +0.2 reads as hawkish, below −0.2 as dovish, in between as neutral. It is an interpretation of the wording, not an official classification. Figures are as stated in the source document; always check the original, linked from every entry.