Treasury yields: the published research is split by horizon, not by direction.
The dominant view across recent third-party research is that US Treasury yields, especially the 10Y, are biased higher over the coming months and years. Analysts point to three pillars: inflation that keeps surprising to the upside, a Fed many expect to hike at least once more before year-end, and strong nominal growth — one widely cited figure puts core nominal growth at 6.5%, the highest since 1996. A structural argument gaining traction is that the AI and data-center buildout is absorbing 3–4% of GDP in savings, mechanically pushing long rates up. Some published projections see the 10Y near 5% into 2028.
But a notable tactical camp argues the opposite near-term: a tech-led equity selloff is driving flight-to-safety demand, and these analysts see yields falling 30+ basis points from recent highs around 5.3%.
On credit, researchers flag growing stress in AI-infrastructure bonds — some neocloud notes reportedly trade below 80 cents with implied default odds above 35%.