US bond research is split right now, and the split is mostly about time horizon, not direction.
One camp of analysts argues yields still have room to climb across the curve. Their case: the labor market remains strong, payrolls keep growing, and roughly half the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh still leans toward further tightening. Futures markets are pricing meaningful odds of another hike by December. Some recently-published views also flag rising real yields as a macro warning and point to energy-driven inflation keeping the 10-year elevated.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back, arguing softer-than-expected CPI and PPI prints have already repriced Fed expectations lower, pulling 2-year and broader Treasury yields down in the near term. On this view, a near-term hike looks unlikely and short-end upside is capped.
At the long end, researchers are also divided: some expect the 30-year to drift higher as it competes with strong corporate earnings, while others see a technical setup pointing to lower 10-year yields. A strategic multi-year camp expects eventual yield compression to become a tailwind for fixed income returns.