Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — but the consensus isn't unanimous, and near-term CPI data could shift the front end.
The dominant argument across recent research: sticky core inflation, a hawkish Fed, and US debt above 124% of GDP are keeping structural upward pressure on yields. One camp of analysts expects three more Fed hikes by early 2027. Others point to fiscal deficits keeping the long end elevated, with 10-year yield forecasts ranging from a gradual climb to 4.85% by 2028 to a more aggressive 5.6% "fair value" call — the latter citing foreign and price-insensitive buyers stepping back.
On the 2-year, some recently-published views map scenarios around this week's CPI: an in-line 0.2% print triggers a modest rally, a rare 0.1% print a larger one, and a hot 0.4% pushes yields higher. A contrarian thread argues healthy disinflation removes the case for further hikes, favoring lower front-end yields.
The clearest outlier on the 10-year: one research view sees yields falling if oil weakness eases inflation expectations and forces the Fed to soften.
Separately, some analysts flag widening spread risk in US private credit, warning that opaque valuations and leverage could produce abrupt impairments if rates stay high.