Published research on US Treasuries is split, with a mild lean toward higher long-end yields but a meaningful camp expecting yields to fall by end-2026.
The bearish-bond camp argues that resilient growth, sticky core inflation, heavy Treasury supply, and uncertainty around the next Fed Chair — with Warsh in focus — will keep yields elevated. One analysis quantifies a roughly 20bp lift in yields in the 90 days after a Chair transition, with added pressure on the 30Y from term premium and supply. Others warn firmer GDP and jobs data risk tilting the Fed back toward tightening.
The dovish camp, by contrast, sees a smooth easing cycle pulling Fed Funds from ~4.4% to ~3.1% by end-2026, with the 10Y settling near 4.05%. A separate baseline expects roughly half the recent yield rise to retrace as oil moderates. Progress on a US-Iran deal is already cited as pulling 2Y and 10Y yields lower. The most dovish thread frames long SOFR futures as a top trade, arguing the Fed is behind on easing.
One cautionary note: research projects 10Y BBB corporate spreads widening from ~108bps to ~186bps by end-2026.