Researchers broadly expect US Treasury yields to drift higher across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year tenors flagged as most exposed — though selective entry points are starting to look attractive to some.
The main catalyst, analysts argue, is the stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which has pushed markets to reprice the Fed's path and even reintroduce the chance of a hike rather than cuts. The published consensus points to resilient labor data and sticky inflation — core PCE and CPI in particular — keeping yields elevated. One camp warns that a core CPI print above 0.3% month-on-month could trigger a meaningful 2-year selloff. Weak demand at upcoming Treasury auctions is also cited as an independent upside risk to yields.
That said, a contrarian thread suggests 2-year Treasuries near 5–6% are becoming compelling for multi-year holders, with investment grade credit at similar yields also looking attractive. On the long end, some recently-published views frame any 30-year rally in an equity selloff as a chance to sell, citing structural fiscal pressures. Municipal bonds are flagged as a bright spot on strong inflows.