Oil's story this week: it's no longer just crude — it's the barrel of products behind it that's screaming shortage.
Renewed US strikes on Iran, halted Strait of Hormuz traffic, and attacks on tankers pushed WTI back above $80 and Brent into the mid-$80s, with published research framing this as a persistent supply-risk repricing rather than a fleeting spike. Options desks are reportedly pricing meaningful odds of a further move toward $100 over the next two to three months if disruptions widen.
The more distinctive call across analysts was on refined products. Diesel is flagged as the acute pressure point — Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have effectively shut Russian diesel exports, crack spreads sit at record levels, and one thread argued shipping surcharges could return in H2. Gasoline analysis pointed to futures implying $4.20+ at the pump within weeks, feeding back into energy CPI.
A minority view noted crude itself looks oddly soft beneath the tape — weak Chinese demand, SPR releases, and an August cargo overhang — arguing the shock fades toward $80 if the Strait reopens.