Published research this week leans heavily bullish on oil and refined products, with the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risk driving the call across Brent, WTI, diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.
The core argument from analysts: tanker traffic disruption and threats to energy infrastructure are being priced as a persistent supply problem, not a brief geopolitical spike. Researchers point to large Q2 inventory drawdowns, the end of global strategic reserve releases, and firm physical market signals. One camp emphasises that refined product margins are near cyclical highs, with low inventories and refiners running flat-out creating sharp upside risk for diesel and gasoline even if crude itself stays rangebound.
On specific levels, some recently published views see $70–80/bbl as a structural floor for crude, while others argue WTI could revisit $85–90/bbl if technical resistance breaks and the military risk premium rebuilds.
A contrarian thread pushes back tactically on Brent, citing weak Chinese demand, strategic stock releases, ample non-Strait supply from Africa, and an unsold August cargo overhang — a genuine demand-side counter to the supply-risk bulls.