Oil research skews firmly bullish right now, with one notable exception taking the long view.
The near-term case, laid out across most of this week's published research, centers on geopolitics: Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz supply risk, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure are cited as the main drivers of elevated prices and a sustained risk premium. Analysts also point to chronic underinvestment in supply, and one strand of recent research frames rising energy costs as a persistent inflationary shock unlikely to resolve soon.
On Brent specifically, researchers argue the risk premium is durable absent a US-Iran deal, with published targets clustering around $107–$120 and some framing $130–$140 as a plausible pain threshold. A tail-risk scenario of $130–$150 is flagged if Hormuz is fully blockaded.
Refined products split: global diesel looks tight on refinery bottlenecks and shipping costs, while US domestic diesel gets relative relief from cheap feedstocks.
The contrarian view: one camp argues supply-driven inflation triggers demand destruction and mean-reversion within one to two years — a horizon call, not a tactical one.